Oscar Winner Predictions: Best International Feature

I’m offering winner predictions in all categories for the Oscars as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best International Feature.

Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature

I’m offering predictions in all categories for the Oscar nominations as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best International Feature.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best International Feature

The competition: Drive My Car (Japan), Flee (Denmark), The Hand of God (Italy), Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan), The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

Previous winners: Another Round (Denmark), Parasite (South Korea), Roma (Mexico), A Fantastic Woman (Chile), The Salesman (Iran), Son of Saul (Hungary), Ida (Poland)
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: This is the fourth consecutive year that a nominee here also contends for Best Director, with Ryusuke Hamaguchi honored, and the third in four years to be up for Best Picture. This is the third consecutive year that a film here – “Flee” this time – is up for Best Documentary, and the first time it’s also up for Best Animated Feature. “Waltz with Bashir” is the only other animated film to have been nominated for this prize. Both “Drive My Car” and “The Worst Person in the World” have their screenplays nominated. Italy is the most-awarded country in this category, with fourteen wins, most recently for another film by “The Hand of God” director Paolo Sorrentino, “The Great Beauty.” Japan has four wins out of seventeen nominations, with “Departures” the most recent to triumph in 2008. Denmark has won four times out of fourteen nominations, most recently last year, for “Another Round,” and this is the country’s sixth nomination in ten years. Norway has yet to win despite six nominations. This is Bhutan’s first-ever nomination. They first submitted a film in 1999 and then tried to submit this year’s nominee last year but were disqualified. “Drive My Car” has taken most precursor prizes.
Who should win: All these choices are good. I think I would vote for “Lunana” but any would be solid.
Who will win: I don’t see a world where Drive My Car loses this, though “The Worst Person in the World” and “Flee” will surely have support.

AFT Awards: Best Foreign Film

This is the eighteenth category of the 14th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. I’m drawing only from films that were either released or playing at a film festival in the 2020 calendar year. For this category, I consider eligible only films that were released or played at film festivals in the United States within the past year. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Collective (Romania), Les Miserables (France), And Then We Danced (Sweden), Ema (Chile), Honeymood (Israel), Sky Raiders (Israel), Welcome to the USA (Kazakhstan), The Art of Waiting (Israel), Asia (Israel)

The winner:
Corpus Christi (Poland) conveyed the story of a man so enraptured by

Other nominees:
Alice Junior (Brazil)
A Thousand Cuts (Philippines)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Venezuela)
The Best Years (Italy)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best International Feature

The competition: Another Round (Denmark), Better Days (Hong Kong), Collective (Romania), The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia), Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Previous winners: Parasite (South Korea), Roma (Mexico), A Fantastic Woman (Chile), The Salesman (Iran), Son of Saul (Hungary), Ida (Poland), The Great Beauty (Italy), Amour (Austria)
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: This is the third consecutive year that a nominee here also contends for Best Director, with Thomas Vinterberg (who I interviewed here) up for the honor for “Another Round.” Two of the past three directors to attain that honor won both this and that prize, though both “Roma” and “Parasite” were also nominated for Best Picture. Vinterberg is back after helming “The Hunt” in 2013, and this marks the thirteenth nomination for Denmark, which has been victorious three times: in 1987 for “Babette’s Feast,” in 1988 for “Pelle the Conqueror,” and in 2010 for “In a Better World.” Hong Kong has two previous nominations, both from the early 1990s. This is Romania’s first-ever nomination, and the second consecutive year that a film in this category has also been recognized as a nominee for Best Documentary. “Collective” is the fourth-ever documentary nominated in this category (thanks to Juan Carlos over at The Film Experience for a thorough historical analysis of this). This is also the first-ever nomination for Tunisia. Bosnia and Herzegovina returns with its second nomination after one previous bid, in 2001 for “No Man’s Land,” which also earned it a win. As far as I can tell, this is the first time since 2006 that two female directors are nominated, Kaouther Ben Hania for “The Man Who Sold His Skin” and Jasmila Žbanić for “Quo Vadis, Aida?” As tends to be the case, this slate is largely untested in regards to competing with each other. Only “Another Round” was nominated at the Golden Globes, while it beat “Quo Vadis, Aida?” at BAFTA.
Who should win: This is a very good list. I personally liked “The Man Who Sold His Skin” quite a bit, but I would be fine with “Another Round” or “Quo Vadis, Aida?” winning too. “Collective” is also a very good choice, and though it wouldn’t be my pick, “Better Days” is also a strong film.
Who will win: I’m tempted to predict that “Quo Vadis, Aida?” triumphs, but I think Another Round will have little trouble winning this.

Oscar Nominees: Best International Feature

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Another Round (Denmark), Better Days (Hong Kong), Collective (Romania), The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia), Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

For the second year in a row, we get a double nominee in the form of a film that makes the cut both here and in the Best Documentary race – Collective (Romania) – which begs the question of whether this category should be reserved for narrative films in an effort to diversify the pool of prospective nominees. Documentaries are eligible for Best Picture but none has ever scored there, so I don’t know how that rule would go over. But “Collective” is far superior, in my mind, to last year’s “Honeyland,” so I’m fine seeing it here. I’m pleased to have correctly predicted The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia), the last of the fifteen finalists that I screened but which I very much liked. I had Better Days (Taiwan) in dead last, but it is a strong and devastating film, so its inclusion here is welcome. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina) was terrific and I’m glad it wasn’t snubbed, and Another Round (Denmark) had a great day since its director, Thomas Vinterberg, who I interviewed last week, also got nominated for Best Director. I am surprised that both “Night of the Kings” and “Sun Children” didn’t get in, but this was a very competitive category with plenty of worthy content.

My current bet to win: I would be very surprised if it wasn’t Another Round.

Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Les Misérables (France), Honeyland (North Macedonia), Corpus Christi (Poland), Parasite (South Korea), Parasite (South Korea)

My choices: Coming soon!

This year’s locks: Another Round (Denmark), Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Very likely: None

Possible: Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast), Sun Children (Iran), The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia), Collective (Romania), Dear Comrades! (Russia), The Mole Agent (Chile), Two of Us (France), La Llorona (Guatemala), I’m No Longer Here (Mexico)

Unlikely: A Sun (Taiwan), Charlatan (Czech Republic), Hope (Norway), Better Days (Hong Kong)

The rundown: I’ve seen all fifteen of the finalists in this category, though I don’t think that gives me all that much of a better handle on this race. Three of the Golden Globe nominees are eligible here, but I’m only predicting one to make the cut. Another Round (Denmark) is a sure thing (read my interview here), while I think that Two of Us (France) and La Llorona (Guatemala) won’t. Quo Vadis, Aida? feels like it has to get nominated, and I’m also still betting on Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast) and Sun Children (Iran), two very buzzy titles. For the fifth slot, I’m putting my weight behind The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia), which I think voters will respond well to once they see it. It doesn’t feel right to leave two films that made the Best Documentary shortlist, Collective (Romania) and The Mole Agent (Chile), out, especially since I am predicting them to score there. Dear Comrades! (Russia) and I’m No Longer Here (Mexico) have both been strong subjects of conversation and could easily place. I’m less confident in the chances of A Sun (Taiwan), Charlatan (Czech Republic), Better Days (Hong Kong), and Hope (Norway – read my interview here), not because they’re not good but because there’s so much competition. Let’s see what happens.

Forecasted winner: I think this goes to Another Round.

25 Fantastic Foreign Films You Should Watch at Home Now

Movie theaters are closed and people are spending more time in their homes. It’s a perfect time to explore some exceptional recent cinema that is readily available. This list is not for those who fear subtitles, but anyone who embraces the chance to experience the best of what the international film industry has to offer. This is not a comprehensive ranking, merely 25 films that I still remember strongly, all from the past twenty years. There are also a few included already on this list, all from Israel, that shouldn’t be missed. Every one of the films below is available to rent for just a few dollars on Amazon Prime, and most can also be rented on other platforms including YouTube, Google Play, Vudu, and iTunes (as of May 2020). Get ready for some truly quality cinema – click on each film title to read my full review.

In a Better World (Denmark)
This Oscar-winning film from director Susanne Bier explores how two young boys receive values from the very different examples set by their fathers. It’s a stunning, searing portrait of humanity that’s as compelling visually as it is thematically.

Waltz with Bashir (Israel)
This animated documentary film is fascinating in its format alone, but its content is equally astounding, as writer-director Ari Folman probes his own memories of what he saw and did in wartime and hasn’t come to terms with since that time.

Wild Tales (Argentina)
This series of unconnected segments is indeed wild, focusing on people unable to suppress their anger. Each part spotlights uncontrollably volatile individuals losing their patience with the world with such a marvelously precise lens.

The Lives of Others (Germany)
This exceptionally-titled drama centers on a man charged with surveilling others who develops an affinity for those he is watching, gleaning tremendous depth from unspoken moments and creating an entrancing thriller that doesn’t need large-scale action to drive it.

Broken Embraces (Spain)
A number of films from famed Spanish director Pedro Almodovar could have been on this list, including “Volver,” “Julieta,” “The Skin I Live In,” and “Talk to Her.” But this underappreciated wonder deserves special mention for its formidable use of frequent muse Penelope Cruz in a vividly interesting narrative that is gorgeously decorated.

Dogtooth (Greece)
Before he broke through to American audiences with “The Lobster” and “The Favourite,” director Yorgos Lanthimos crafted this mind-bending portrait of parents who deliberately educate their children incorrectly to exert disturbing control over their lives.

Headhunters (Norway)
This comedy-turned-thriller about an unconventional criminal is riveting from start to finish, constantly uncovering a new surprise and keeping its audience in suspense. Nikolaj Coster-Waldau from “Game of Thrones” also makes a strong villain.

A Very Long Engagement (France)
This gorgeous follow-up to the equally brilliant “Amélie” from director Jean-Pierre Jeunet stars Audrey Tautou as a woman who refuses to accept that her fiancé has been killed in war. It’s a lovely story enhanced by wondrous visuals and music.

Tangerines (Estonia)
This moving film makes a metaphor literal with a man who takes in two injured men on opposite sides of a war and insists that they cannot kill each other while in his house. It’s a quiet, sincere film anchored by a haunting score.

Of Gods and Men (France)
This profile of monks in Algeria in the 1990s interacting with their surrounding Muslim community and hostile forces unwelcoming to outside religious influence is a powerful look at faith and perseverance grounded in heartfelt performances.

Land of Mine (Denmark)
Another film with a bitingly fitting title, this drama follows German prisoners of war in the aftermath of World War II forced to search Danish beaches for mines planted by their fellow soldiers and serves as a searing and insightful examination of the fragility of life.

The Insult (Lebanon)
This film tackles a clash of cultures between a Lebanese Christian and a Palestinian refugee and evolves into an indictment of hatred and the way prejudices pull us apart, transforming simple arguments into large-scale rivalries.

My Life as a Zucchini (France)
This seventy-minute stop-motion animated film is not for children but about children, setting itself in an orphanage and confronting issues such as abuse and negligence. It’s not for the easily unsettled, but it’s a formidable and mesmerizing approach to a difficult concept.

A Separation (Iran)
Best described as a gripping non-thriller, this film opens with a woman seeking a divorce in Iran but turns into so much more than that, honing in on a culture that doesn’t value equality and civil rights with complex characters and astounding performances.

After the Wedding (Denmark)
Recently remade in the United States with Julianne Moore and Michelle Williams starring, this far superior original features a devastating revelation that forces a man to confront what matters in his life and his responsibilities to those he doesn’t know.

Micmacs (France)
From director Jean-Pierre Jeunet, whose “A Very Long Engagement” appears earlier on this list, comes a film that abandons just one star to feature a fabulous ensemble of people having fun working to take down those who have mistreated others, decorated as usual with eye-popping colors and lavish visuals.

In Between (Israel)
This stylish film about three young Palestinian women insightfully navigates the complex differences that exist between them and in their society, fashioning strong characters in an involving and meaningful story.

A Christmas Tale (France)
This creative and delightful film defines the buoyant nature of French cinema with a superb cast including Catherine Deneuve, Emmanuelle Devos, and Mathieu Amalric and a fanciful framing that makes its story inherently more fascinating than it might otherwise be.

Burning (South Korea)
One year before “Parasite” became the first foreign to win Best Picture – and to represent South Korea at the Oscars – this quiet, haunting film also looked at the secret lives people don’t display to others, presenting a mystery man whose seemingly devious actions are shrouded in intrigue.

Tell No One (France)
Conspiracy thrillers may be commonplace these days, but this sleek film has exactly the right pace to keep its audience fixated on the plot and all of its twists and turns as it slowly unravels and transforms into something unexpected.

The Secret in their Eyes (Argentina)
This contemplative film is one that makes excellent use of multiple time periods to weave its narrative together, presenting clues and crucial events at different moments to underscore their importance and meaning.

A Prophet (France)
Prison is a familiar setting for films, and this affecting drama probes the way in which those with limited criminal history or inclinations become criminals as a result of their incarceration, touching on cultural identity and the naivety of youth along the way.

The White Ribbon (Germany)
This unsettling picture of a rural village on the eve of World War I investigates the reason people are suspicious of each other and the impulses towards evil some feel, presented in stark black-and-white to emphasize its disturbing nature.

City of God (Brazil)
The original foreign film that broke through at the Oscars back in 2002 is a dazzling, sun-kissed glorification of the slums of Rio and the conflicts that emerge between achieving power and garnering true satisfaction.

Blue is the Warmest Color (France)
This three-hour NC-17 drama courted controversy for its excessive sex scenes, but there’s so much more to this passionate breakdown of an intimate relationship that portrays the power of attraction and the allure of the unknown.

Thanks for reading, and enjoy these films! For more recommendations and reviews, visit MoviesWithAbe.com.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best International Feature

The competition: Corpus Christi (Poland), Honeyland (North Macedonia), Les Miserables (France), Pain and Glory (Spain), Parasite (South Korea)

Previous winners: Roma (Mexico), A Fantastic Woman (Chile), The Salesman (Iran), Son of Saul (Hungary), Ida (Poland), The Great Beauty (Italy), Amour (Austria), A Separation (Iran)
My winner: Parasite
The facts: This is the second consecutive year that a nominee here also contends for Best Picture, with “Parasite” up for six total awards, including Best Director. The only returning nominee here is Pedro Almodovar, who won this category in 1999 for “All About My Mother,” was nominated in 1988 for “Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown,” and won a screenplay prize along with a directing nomination in 2002 for “Talk to Her.” “Honeyland” is also nominated for Best Documentary this year. This is the second consecutive nomination for Poland, which won once out of eleven nominations, for “Ida” in 2014. This is the fortieth nomination for France, which has won twelve times, most recently in 1992 for “Indochine.” This is the twentieth nomination for Spain, which won four times, most recently in 2004 for “The Sea Inside.” North Macedonia was nominated once before, on its first try in 1994 for “Before the Rain.” This is the first nomination for South Korea. “Parasite” has won most foreign film prizes handed out by any organization, and also became the first non-English film to win the SAG Award for its ensemble.

Who should win: In another year, I’d be championing the superb “Corpus Christi” to win, and I also was very impressed by both “Les Miserables” and “Pain and Glory.” But nothing compares to the best film of the year, “Parasite.”
Who will win: It would be the biggest shock of the century if anything but Parasite won here.

AFT Awards: Best Foreign Film

This is the nineteenth category of the 13th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category. For this category, I consider eligible only films that were released in their native countries within the past year.

Honorable mentions:
Shooting Life (Israel), A Faithful Man (France), Pain and Glory (Spain)

The winner:
Parasite (South Korea) was a marvelous look at competing classes and the secrets people keep buried and others don’t even think to look for in plain sight.

Other nominees:
The Unorthodox (Israel)
Red Cow (Israel)
Redemption (Israel)
Portrait of a Lady on Fire (France)

Oscar Nominees: Best International Feature

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Come back later this week!
The nominees: Corpus Christi (Poland), Honeyland (North Macedonia), Les Misérables (France), Pain and Glory (Spain), Parasite (South Korea)

Here is one of my biggest disappointments: the inclusion of Honeyland here in addition to its slot in the Best Documentary race. For it to be the first film to achieve a double nomination like that feels unnecessary since it really isn’t that amazing. I liked “Beanpole” but wasn’t really pushing for any of the other finalists to get in, so it’s not all that crushing. I’m perfectly happy with the other four nominees though, and thrilled that Corpus Christi (Poland) made the cut since it’s the least high-profile of the other three. Les Misérables (France) is also very good, and Pain and Glory (Spain) made the cut along with its star Antonio Banderas after some worried it might be snubbed. And then of course there’s Parasite (South Korea), the deserved default winner in this race that represents South Korea’s first-ever nomination.

My current bet to win: It will be Parasite for sure.

Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Capernaum (Lebanon), Cold War (Poland), Never Look Away (Germany), Roma (Mexico), Shoplifters (Japan)

My choices: Coming next week!

This year’s locks: Parasite (South Korea)

Very likely: Les Misérables (France)

Possible: Corpus Christi (Poland), Pain and Glory (Spain), Truth and Justice (Estonia), Atlantics (Senegal), Beanpole (Russia)

Unlikely: The Painted Bird (Czech Republic), Honeyland (North Macedonia), Those Who Remained (Hungary)

The rundown: I’ve seen all ten of the finalists announced in mid-December, and feel like I have a pretty good idea of how this race will go. I’ll run through each and the country statistics below. It’s worth noting that “Portrait of a Lady on Fire” has been nominated broadly by many groups but wasn’t submitted by France, and that “The Farewell,” a Golden Globe nominee, is also ineligible because it’s an American film. The name change to Best International Feature reflects no rule changes.

Like “Roma” last year, Parasite (South Korea), a stunning examination of class and humanity, is the surest thing and guaranteed to win here. Director Boon Joon Ho will be nominated for his seventh film, and the film will contend for Best Picture and likely many other prizes. It’s still a hurdle for South Korea, which made the shortlist last year with “Burning” for the first time after twenty-nine previous submissions.

Next likeliest is Les Misérables (France), a story of police brutality and culture clashes in modern-day Paris suburb, which earned bids at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. The country has achieved an astounding thirty-nine nominations in this race, with nine wins. The most recent victory was back in 1992 for “Indochine,” and “Mustang” was the last film nominated in 2015. This is director Ladj Ly’s feature directorial debut.

Corpus Christi (Poland) features a pious ex-convict who pretends to be a priest upon his release from prison. It hasn’t actually earned many domestic nominations, but it’s been very popular at European festivals and it’s really a terrific film. Poland was nominated last year, its eleventh overall bid. The country has won once, in 2015, for “Ida.” This is director Jan Komasa’s third feature film.

Pain and Glory (Spain) follows an aging director and a last opportunity to recapture part of what he once had. Itt should probably be ranked higher up given that it comes from renowned director Pedro Almodovar and it earned bids from the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, and many other groups. It also has a strong acting contender in star Antonio Banderas. But one of his most popular films, “Volver,” which earned a Best Actress nomination for Penelope Cruz, was shockingly snubbed in this category back in 2006. Spain has been nominated nineteen times, with four wins. Its most recent bid was in 2004 for winner “The Sea Inside.” Almodovar directed two previous nominees, “Woman on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown” in 1988 and winner “All About My Mother” in 1999. He was also nominated in 2002 for Best Director for “Talk to Her” and won the Best Original Screenplay prize. This is his twenty-first film.

Truth and Justice (Estonia) is an epic tale of two neighbors finding for the right to work the land in the 1800s. It broke box office records as a nationally-revered adaptation of a definitive work of literature. Estonia has been nominated once before, for 2014’s terrific “Tangerines.” This is the feature film debut from director Tanel Toom, who was nominated for his live action short “The Confession” in 2010.

Atlantics (Senegal) is a science fiction story of a young woman betrothed to another whose dead love may not actually have perished in a boat accident at sea. The film is a Critics Choice nominee and has been cited by a number of other awards bodies. Director Mati Drop is a Directors Guild of America nominee for debut director. It’s also available to watch on Netflix. Senegal has only ever submitted one film for this race before, which was “Félicité” in 2017, which made the shortlist and was ultimately not nominated.

Beanpole (Russia) is a bleak tale set at the end of World War II about two nurses and the child they both care for. It took home major prizes at the Cannes Film Festival. Since 1992, Russia has been nominated seven times, winning in 1994 for “Burnt by the Sun.” Its last bid was for “Loveless” in 2017. This is director Kantemir Balagov’s third film.

The Painted Bird (Czech Republic) is a brutal look at the cruelty of man, seen through the eyes of a wandering Jewish boy during World War II. The film won a prize at the Venice Film Festival. Since 1994, the Czech Republic has earned three bids, winning in 1996 for “Kolya.” The country hasn’t been nominated since 2003. This is director Václav Marhoul’s third film.

Honeyland (North Macedonia) is a documentary about a beekeeper in the mountains struggling to maintain her ways. It’s also a finalist for Best Documentary, where I expect it to be nominated. It has earned a number of critics and festival prizes, including at Sundance, but most have been in the documentary field. It’s very rare to see a documentary nominated in this race, though both “The Missing Picture” and “Waltz with Bashir” were. North Macedonia was nominated only once before, on its first submission in 1994. This is the feature film debut for both Tamara Kotevska and Ljubomir Stefanov.

Those Who Remained (Hungary) spotlights two people who form an unusual relationship after surviving the Holocaust. It has been nominated for a few festival prizes and was the surprise inclusion on this list. Hungary has won both its prizes in this race for Holocaust films – “Mephisto” in 1981 and “Son of Saul” in 2015. The country has received eight additional nominations, most recently in 2017 for “On Body and Soul.” This is director Barnabás Tóth’s second feature film. His film “Chuchotage” made the Oscar shortlist for Best Live Action Short last year.

Forecasted winner: There’s no way this goes to anything but Parasite.

AFT Awards: Best Foreign Film

This is the nineteenth category of the 12th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category. For this category, I consider eligible only films that were released in their native countries within the past year.

Honorable mentions:
Working Woman (Israel), The Cousin (Israel), Slut in a Good Way (France), The Cakemaker (Israel), Shoplifters (Japan)

The winner:
Roma (Mexico) turned what could have been a bland, uninviting narrative into an imperative immersion in its characters’ lives.

Other nominees:
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Burning (South Korea)
Beauty and the Dogs (Tunisia)
Shelter (Israel)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Foreign Film

The competition: Capernaum (Lebanon), Cold War (Poland), Never Look Away (Germany), Roma (Mexico), Shoplifters (Japan)

Previous winners: A Fantastic Woman (Chile), The Salesman (Iran), Son of Saul (Hungary), Ida (Poland), The Great Beauty (Italy), Amour (Austria), A Separation (Iran), In a Better World (Denmark)
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: “Roma” is the first nominee in this category to contend both for Best Picture and for any acting award since “Amour” in 2012, and the first-ever nominee here to be up for two acting prizes, competing in ten categories overall. “Roma” director Alfonso Cuaron is himself nominated for producing, directing, writing, and shooting his film, and previously won for directing and editing “Gravity” in 2013. “Cold War” director Pawel Pawlikowski, who is also nominated for Best Director, won this award in 2014 for “Ida.” “Never Look Away” director Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck won this award in 2006 for “The Lives of Others.” This is the first time since 1976 that two films here are also nominated for directing and only the second time ever that three of these films are cited for cinematography. Japan has four wins in this category out of fifteen nominations. Germany has two wins out of ten nominations. Poland has one win out of ten nominations. Mexico has yet to win after eight nominations, and this is the second consecutive bid for Lebanon and its second overall. “Roma” has taken home prizes in this category from the Critics’ Choice Awards, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes.

Who should win: I didn’t love the very long “Never Look Away” despite some positive elements, and had similar issues with “Cold War.” “Shoplifters” is certainly good, but both “Capernaum” and “Roma” are near the top of my list of overall favorites this past year, and both would be equally deserving of a win.
Who will win: It could be “Cold War” in an upset, but I think Roma takes it easily.

Oscar Nominees: Best Foreign Film

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: Capernaum (Lebanon), Cold War (Poland), Never Look Away (Germany), Roma (Mexico), Shoplifters (Japan)

I’m more invested in this race than I’ve ever been before, and while I’m not surprised by this lineup, I’m a bit disappointed since I would have loved to see “Burning” included. This list includes the four finalists nominated at the Golden Globes and the one film that was snubbed there, Cold War, which also merited a Best Cinematography nomination and a much more surprising Best Director bid. This may well be the most participatory foreign field ever, and certainly the most active in twenty years when two of 1998’s nominees scored major bids. Never Look Away got an unexpected but well-deserved nomination for Best Cinematography, where it joined Roma, the nominations co-leader, which scored a total of ten nominations. Shoplifters is here, which is good, along with Lebanon for its second consecutive nomination: the marvelous Capernaum. I’ll go through statistics and likelihoods when I do my winner predictions, though I will note that the scenario that pits Germany against Mexico where the former prevailed over the much more nominated latter in 2006 has in fact occurred.

My current bet to win: Even if both “Cold War” and “Never Look Away” got a bump today, it’s not wise to bet against Roma.

Oscar Predictions: Best Foreign Film

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 22nd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: A Fantastic Woman (Chile), The Insult (Lebanon), Loveless (Russia), On Body and Soul (Hungary), The Square (Sweden)

My choices: Coming in February!

This year’s locks: Roma (Mexico), Cold War (Poland), Shoplifters (Japan)

Very likely: Capernaum (Lebanon)

Possible: Burning (South Korea), Never Look Away (Germany), Birds of Passage (Colombia), Ayka (Kazakhstan), The Guilty (Denmark)

The rundown: I’m excited to have, for the first time, seen all nine of the finalists that were announced in mid-December. I’ll run through each and the country statistics below. I’m predicting the exact Critics’ Choice list, which includes the four eligible Globe nominees (“Girl” from Belgium didn’t make this shortlist).

There’s no question that Roma (Mexico) will be nominated here, since it’s expected to win Best Picture yet still cited by most organizations as the Best Foreign Film of the year. Director Alfonso Cuaron won an Oscar in 2013 for “Gravity,” but this would be his first nomination in this category. Mexico has been nominated eight times before, most recently in 2010 for “Biutiful,” and has yet to win.

It might be foolhardy to put Cold War (Poland) down as a lock after it was snubbed by the Golden Globes, but director Pawel Pawlikowski’s previous film, “Ida,” won this award in 2014, and the film has won many critics’ prizes. It is also a likely nominee for Best Cinematography. Poland has been nominated ten times before, with “Ida” marking its first win.

Shoplifters (Japan) seems like a sure thing. It would mark the first nomination for director Hirokazu Koreeda, his thirteenth feature film. Japan has been nominated fifteen times before, winning three honorary prizes in the 1950s and then for “Departures” in 2008, its last nomination to date.

Capernaum (Lebanon) was an early festival favorite and would mark only the second-ever nomination for Lebanon, which earned its very first bid last year. Though director Nadine Labaki has made two acclaimed films before, this would mark her first nomination.

Burning (South Korea) has taken home some prominent critics’ prizes in addition to earning a nomination from the Critics’ Choice Awards and a spot on the National Board of Review’s list. It also has a dark horse acting contender in the form of Steven Yeun, which might give it more visibility. Despite thirty previous submissions, this would mark the very first Oscar nomination for South Korea. This is director Chang-dong Lee’s sixth film.

Never Look Away (Germany) was nominated for a Golden Globe, and its best asset is the fact that it comes from director Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck, whose first film, “The Lives of Others,” won this award back in 2006, affording Germany its most recent of three wins. The country has been nominated a total of nineteen times.

Birds of Passage (Colombia) hasn’t won or been nominated for any non-festival American prizes, though the same was mostly true for “Embrace of the Serpent,” the last and only time Colombia was nominated for an Oscar, a film from the same filmmakers, real-life couple Cristina Gallego and Ciro Guerra, as this one.

Ayka (Kazakhstan) was the big surprise finalist among this group, and could earn its country its second-ever Oscar nomination after its 2007 bid for “Mongol.” This film won a Best Actress award for star Samal Yeslyamova at the Cannes Film Festival. This is director Sergei Dvortsevoy’s second feature film.

The Guilty (Denmark) won an Audience Award at Sundance and was one of the National Board of Review’s choices for foreign film. This is director Gustav Möller’s debut film. Denmark has thirteen previous nominations and three wins, most recently for the superb “In a Better World” in 2010.

Forecasted winner: Unless voters feel Roma is going to be rewarded elsewhere and give this to “Cold War,” there won’t be any surprises here.

AFT Awards: Best Foreign Film

This is the nineteenth category of the 11th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category. For this category, I consider eligible only films that were released in their native countries within the past year.

Honorable mentions:
Glory (Bulgaria), In the Fade (Germany), The Passion of Augustine (Canada)

The winner:
The Wedding Plan (Israel) was a marvelous wedding-centered follow-up to “Fill the Void” for director Rama Burshtein that took a deeply comedic look at one woman’s unconventional search for happiness.

Other nominees:
The Women’s Balcony (Israel)
In Between (Israel)
Free and Easy (China)
Axolotl Overkill (Germany)

Oscar nominees like “The Insult” and “A Fantastic Woman” will be nominated next year in major categories since they were not released in 2018 in the United States.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Foreign Film

The competition: A Fantastic Woman (Chile), On Body and Soul (Hungary), The Insult (Lebanon), Loveless (Russia), The Square (Sweden)

Previous winners: The Salesman (Iran), Son of Saul (Hungary), Ida (Poland), The Great Beauty (Italy), Amour (Austria), A Separation (Iran), In a Better World (Denmark)
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!

The facts: “Loveless” director Andrey Zvyagintsev’s previous film, “Leviathan,” was nominated in 2014, while “A Fantastic Woman” director Sebastián Lelio and “The Square” director Ruben Östlund had previous features, “Gloria” and “Force Majeure,” that came close to being nominated in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Sweden has won three times out of fifteen nominations, Hungary has won twice out of nine, and Russia has won once out of six. This is the second nomination for Chile, following “No” in 2012, and the first for Lebanon. “In the Fade,” from Germany, won the Golden Globe and the Critics’ Choice Award but didn’t make this list.

Who should win: The one film on this list that truly astounded was “The Insult,” which takes what should be a simple disagreement and turns it into something much more representative of clashing cultures. “A Fantastic Woman” and “On Body and Soul” were both very strong, while I felt the same way about “Loveless” and “The Square” as I did about their directors’ previous films: some decent features but less than effective and well-rounded overall.

Who will win: I’m going to go ahead and predict The Insult even though that’s probably not smart and “The Square” or “A Fantastic Woman” will win.

Oscar Nominees: Best Foreign Film

My predictions: 3/5, picking “Foxtrot” and “In the Fade” over “The Insult” and “On Body and Soul”
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: A Fantastic Woman (Chile), The Insult (Lebanon), Loveless (Russia), On Body and Soul (Hungary), The Square (Sweden)

I had seen three of the nine finalists, and two of them – Golden Globe winner “In the Fade” from Germany and “Foxtrot” from Israel – didn’t make the cut. The one I liked the least, “The Square,” did. I know that “The Insult” has already been released, both “A Fantastic Woman” and “Loveless” are coming out in February, and “On Body and Soul” will be available on Netflix on February 2nd, so I hope to have much more to say about this category once I’ve seen more of it.

My current bet to win: I think that The Square has the edge now.

Oscar Predictions: Best Foreign Film

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 23rd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Land of Mine (Denmark), A Man Called Ove (Sweden), The Salesman (Iran), Tanna (Australia), Toni Erdmann (Germany)

This year’s locks: In the Fade (Germany), The Square (Sweden)

Very likely: A Fantastic Woman (Chile)

Possible: Loveless (Russia), Foxtrot (Israel), The Insult (Lebanon), On Body and Soul (Hungary), The Wound (South Africa), Félicité (Senegal)

The rundown: I’ve seen three of these films, and I’m predicting them all to make the cut: Golden Globe winner In the Fade (Germany), Cannes champ The Square (Sweden), and Israel’s submission, Foxtrot (Israel). I’m assuming that it will be joined by Golden Globe nominees A Fantastic Woman (Chile) and Loveless (Russia), both of which will be released in February and which I hope to see closer to that time. The Insult (Lebanon), which opened recently, has a lot of buzz, and On Body and Soul (Hungary), might show up too since its country has been nominated a number of time. I’m less optimistic about The Wound (South Africa), whose submitting nation has been nominated twice, and Félicité (Senegal), from a country that has never been nominated, but they could easily show up. It’s difficult to predict this category even if you’ve seen all the films.

Forecasted winner: I think that In the Fade can win but who the hell knows?